Monday, 20 July 2020

Clarke's Three Laws

In the huge universe of inspirational quotes, books, and movies, Clarke's Three Laws burn bright like an O-type star.

Briefly, they are:
  1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
  2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
  3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
The third one has received a lot of attention and fame but I find the first two to be more instructive. And inspiring. 

[From October 24, 2018]

Friday, 17 July 2020

Draft Pick: Guilty?

After a rough week, the best I could do to extract productivity from a languid Friday was to clean up old drafts. I found I was preparing a follow-up draft to my post on The Battle for Grammar about 7 years ago. It has been far too long for me to do justice to my thought process as on June 9, 2013, and so the only sensible step was to retain the hyperlink to this wonderful kinetic typography YouTube video of Stephen Fry expounding on the same topic except with an eloquence not within my current capabilities. I had intended to share the video as ringing validation of my thoughts developed independently of Fry's own exquisite tirade though this video and the text behind it easily predate my blog post.





Tuesday, 7 July 2020

Notes on COVID Part III

I should've been writing more frequently but PhD pressures made sure I didn't do anything beyond an intransigent proof.

Still, for record keeping purposes, this was my draft from April 22, unedited,

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We'll start this edition by pointing out an erratum in my first post. First, Shakespeare did not write King Lear during the plague, he wrote it during a period of brief respite from it, between 1603 and 1610. He did write a play, Coriolanus, during the plague years. Read more here.

The New Yorker also tries to make an argument that Newton's two year hiatus from Cambridge, and ensuing isolation, was not the reason for his brilliant achievements. He was already thinking deeply about the problems at least a year before, and continued producing outstanding work after re-joining academic life.

I don't buy the argument. That he was a genius and was producing outstanding work all his life is indubitable. Yet, it doesn't mean he couldn't have had an extra spurt of creativity from his isolation. The argument doesn't convince me, but the article is still an inspiring read.

*****

I will be focusing on India in this post. I do so because the country stands at the cusp of exponential explosion. It is a critical time and understanding the data would do some good.

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Yeah, India did see the exponential increase in cases.

And just for completeness sake, right now we seem to be on the cusp of an exponential rise in deaths from COVID here in the US.

Sigh.

Tuesday, 14 April 2020

Notes on COVID-19 Part - II


Lazy data work here but I am wondering if this will be the third week in a row when the number of cases reported on a Tuesday shoots up.

The consecutive red bars are JHU numbers from Sundays and Mondays. It would seem that reporting of deaths falls at the close of the week.

Not clear if there's a reason or if it's sheer coincidence.

But if there is a pattern the number of deaths today should be 2500-2600 roughly. Based on the size of the jumps the last two times.

Previous post

Monday, 6 April 2020

Quote of the Week - VI



Volcanoes be in Sicily
And South America,
I judge from my geography.
Volcanoes nearer here,
A lava step, at any time,        
Am I inclined to climb,
A crater I may contemplate,
Vesuvius at home.

- Emily Dickinson

Previous post in the series.

Wednesday, 1 April 2020

Notes on COVID-19, Part I

The world is in a mess. The COVID-19 -- or coronavirus; I will use both terms interchangeably -- pandemic has humbled humanity. It's a virus that rides on the traits that define the 21st century world, such as a globalized economy and the wanderlust of an unprecedented number of prosperous individuals.

The virus manages to lull every newly vulnerable country into the proverbial false sense of complacency. Most of us aren't naturally wired to fear an exponential function. Till then (and beyond), the virus spreads easily and incubates for roughly 5-7 days before announcing its presence (if at all). It leaves 80% of the infected relatively unscathed but devastates the rest. The body goes into overdrive fighting the virus and, in its worst form, the body's aggression can lead to lungs getting filled with fluid and debris, or can lead to complications seemingly unrelated to a lung disease.

What does a person do in these times? For sure, it is everyone's responsibility and basic common-sense to stay indoors but I don't see that from my window in upper Manhattan. A friend recently shared data that showed roughly 50% of New Yorkers being out of their homes every day.

If one does choose sense and sensibility, there is much to be done on a personal level. New opportunities beckon. For example, if a person doesn't read now with their alternative options drastically reduced and work disrupted, then it is hard to think of a time when they would.

I have lined up the following books -- The Decameron by Boccaccio, King Lear by Shakespeare, and Don Quixote by Cervantes. I have never read the first, I think it is an apt book right now since its backdrop is the Black Death. King Lear was written during the time of plague and I couldn't remember the details of the story; it has been so long since I consumed Shakespeare. Don Quixote is one of my favorite books and I couldn't resist the opportunity to read the whole novel -- one of the first ones ever written -- again.

People have shared Isaac Newton's achievements when Cambridge shut down during the plague. The tale is undoubtedly inspiring but working in a cramped Manhattan apartment doesn't seem to replicate the same setting despite having many more luxuries than 17th century England. Then again, the luxuries probably distract than help.

I also intend to share news and views related to economics and finance because why not? As a researcher it's a time to process how the world is changing. An economist cannot do much in these times obviously. But maybe they can change the way people think about non-normal events.

And who knows? Maybe this will be the new normal. The virus is frustratingly resilient and it brings no comfort knowing it belongs to the family that includes the common cold. If the common cold is any omen, it's going to be hard to find a vaccine for COVID-19. Or maybe we could always have had a vaccine for the cold but that wasn't considered to be a profitable undertaking.

Watch this space for more. 

Tuesday, 18 February 2020

Best Books I Read in 2018

Now that I am on a roll and churning out blog posts by the day-I-happen-to-have-insomnia, I feel that this is my only chance to write posts I should have written literally years ago.

Starting with a list of the best books I read in 2018!

I want to assure the kind reader (hi mom!) I already had my list ready. I even had fragments of the post, in a shape worse than mint-conditioned Draft Picks but enough to crank this out before I lose myself again.

So instead of writing long descriptions and full-er reviews in all their excruciating detail I list below the best books I read in 2018. Usual disclaimer: this is not a list of the best books published in 2018. I usually never read a book the year it's published -- my to-read list is a couple of years behind, despite 50+ books/year deep into PhD life.

Let's begin:

1. Death's End by Cixin Liu


Okay, this was a no-brainer. The Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy is by far the best work of science fiction I've read in years. I also believe the trilogy would have attracted more attention if it had been written by an author from the traditional bastions of fiction literature.

In the two years since I've read the trilogy, it seems a lot more people are reading the books. That's brilliant and richly deserved. Don't miss it.

2. Ants Among Elephants by Sujatha Gidla


A disquieting personal history of a Dalit (untouchable) family, Gidla nonchalantly reveals the unimaginable horror and humiliation that a large chunk of India's population has had to face for an unthinkable span of time (and which continues in various ways today). The history walks through several generations of Gidla's ancestors and is intimately tied to the events around and after India's independence - a narrative that refuses to be slotted along traditional political lines and ideologies. Very honest, non-sugar coated, unsentimental account leaving you blown away by the details and powerful (but subtle) imagery. Guarantees to leave you uncomfortable.

The thing about any good memoir is that it brings intimacy to the story and (in this case) the theme at hand. You become part of their family, the quirks of the individuals in them, and the ambitions and miseries they all face. What that does (and Gidla does it here superbly) is that all the injustice, the humiliation and the inhuman deprivation becomes personal. It adds to the sense of outrage you feel. I've been reading on caste for decades. It's one thing to study it from afar and nod your head in empathy or shake it with academic disgust. It's quite another to feel part of the story and to feel the pain and distress.

The second thing about the narrative is that it moves quickly and smoothly through the half a dozen plots. There is no time for Gidla to wallow in self-pity or provide any philosophical take on any of it. No academic dissection or analysis. It's just an honest, authentic story. And I found that to be far more effective and galling than many deeply sympathetic but distant descriptions.

The book is interesting and entertaining in its own way. Fast paced. The fact is the basic idea of the memoir could've been an account of any person's personal family history. What changes it and makes it fascinating are the characters and the intimate details of the struggles and the decisions they make. None of them justified by the author, or indeed, sentimentally weighted.

Lastly, it's a jaunt through decades of post Independence events as we only see their reflection on small, mostly insignificant individuals.

3. Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World by Jack Weatherford


Some revisionist history now. This is a well-written and entertaining book. Most people have heard a lot about the cruelties and barbarities of the mighty warlord and it is hard to argue against the havoc he created in the world as he conquered. It is also true that Weatherford is a little too enamored by his subject yet this book ends up being a good counter-weight to the dominant narrative and pushes the reader to give a second thought to aspects of Genghis Khan's reign that escape attention, namely, his administrative capabilities (once regions were absorbed) and his policies in matters of communication, trade, law and religious freedom. These aspects are arguably admirable.

For a reader, the book is delicious. It starts off with the story of young Temujin and his improbable ascendance to dominance from the deeply fractured tribal system in Mongolia. Given that Genghis Khan had one of the largest Empires in history it goes without question that the tales of his conquest are jaw-dropping.

Jack Weatherford does well to reinterpret the Mongol period of dominance without the prejudiced blinkers that see every "outside" conqueror to be barbaric. He also does well to contrast the comparatively progressive administration of the Mongol Empire with civilizations in the rest of the world. But a caveat. Yes, the Mongol Empire deserves much more respect from the modern world on many fronts - as one of the mightiest Empires of all time, a fearsome military power and a highly sophisticated administrative behemoth. But I wouldn't go as far as making everything that happened in the world to be a consequence of this era. This isn't damning criticism -- clearly a lot of things we take for granted in the modern world such as several country boundaries, regional cultural traits, as well as the diffusion of technological progress directly flow from the actions taken during the Mongol Empire. But it is important criticism -- Weatherford gets speculative on occasion.

4. How to Get Filthy Rich in Rising Asia by Mohsin Hamid


Hamid is a fantastic writer. His writing style is accessible and piercing. In this bildungsroman masked as a self-help book, he pieces together a picture that is instantly recognizable to most people from Asia.

The beauty is that you never noticed it yourself. Hamid paints in vivid detail the backdrop to the lives of the privileged in South Asia. The overfull bus bouncing down a pot-holed road; people in constant danger of spilling out. The slow moving marauding cyclist on a busy road; an idle turn away from death. The salesman going door-to-door to face almost certain failure and disdain; preferring this life over back-breaking labor. You see because Hamid moves them to the foreground. He throws the light.

There's also something to "you" being the protagonist: adding another layer of intimacy that comes by the use of the second person. Ultimately, what starts out as a brash and seemingly unemotional guide to climbing out of the ditch of despair and destitution in an emerging country becomes an endearing story that touches you with its rawness and simplicity. This was my first book by the author. Quite impressive.

5. Inglorious Empire/An Era of Darkness by Shashi Tharoor



Not Tharoor's best book but there are good chapters in this one. The Myth of Enlightened Despotism is that one chapter I'd recommend anyone and everyone to read.

Content-wise the book packs a powerful punch. At a time when the legacy of colonialism sees many back-and-forth discussions the book carves out its space by offering perspective on something which statistics and the dehumanizing long term view of history often miss - that many ordinary people suffered grievously, and that millions died at the hands of the policies (and deliberate neglect) of colonial leaders. This at a scale and over a period never before seen in India.

It's a great book because it directly addresses many hearsay theories about the supposed good brought about by the Empire. Tharoor by no means aims to demonize the British; indeed his own passion for many things British is freely admitted and expressed. He only points out that the colonial project of extraction and exploitation spread over some centuries should not, at the very least, be whitewashed by presumptuous theories about there being good intentions behind the actions taken by the oppressors. It's hard to refute this claim.

Middlemarch

A book review written a year after the book was read is not a review per se. I cannot bank on a spontaneous rush of thoughts. I no longer ha...