Tuesday, 14 April 2020

Notes on COVID-19 Part - II


Lazy data work here but I am wondering if this will be the third week in a row when the number of cases reported on a Tuesday shoots up.

The consecutive red bars are JHU numbers from Sundays and Mondays. It would seem that reporting of deaths falls at the close of the week.

Not clear if there's a reason or if it's sheer coincidence.

But if there is a pattern the number of deaths today should be 2500-2600 roughly. Based on the size of the jumps the last two times.

Previous post

Monday, 6 April 2020

Quote of the Week - VI



Volcanoes be in Sicily
And South America,
I judge from my geography.
Volcanoes nearer here,
A lava step, at any time,        
Am I inclined to climb,
A crater I may contemplate,
Vesuvius at home.

- Emily Dickinson

Previous post in the series.

Wednesday, 1 April 2020

Notes on COVID-19, Part I

The world is in a mess. The COVID-19 -- or coronavirus; I will use both terms interchangeably -- pandemic has humbled humanity. It's a virus that rides on the traits that define the 21st century world, such as a globalized economy and the wanderlust of an unprecedented number of prosperous individuals.

The virus manages to lull every newly vulnerable country into the proverbial false sense of complacency. Most of us aren't naturally wired to fear an exponential function. Till then (and beyond), the virus spreads easily and incubates for roughly 5-7 days before announcing its presence (if at all). It leaves 80% of the infected relatively unscathed but devastates the rest. The body goes into overdrive fighting the virus and, in its worst form, the body's aggression can lead to lungs getting filled with fluid and debris, or can lead to complications seemingly unrelated to a lung disease.

What does a person do in these times? For sure, it is everyone's responsibility and basic common-sense to stay indoors but I don't see that from my window in upper Manhattan. A friend recently shared data that showed roughly 50% of New Yorkers being out of their homes every day.

If one does choose sense and sensibility, there is much to be done on a personal level. New opportunities beckon. For example, if a person doesn't read now with their alternative options drastically reduced and work disrupted, then it is hard to think of a time when they would.

I have lined up the following books -- The Decameron by Boccaccio, King Lear by Shakespeare, and Don Quixote by Cervantes. I have never read the first, I think it is an apt book right now since its backdrop is the Black Death. King Lear was written during the time of plague and I couldn't remember the details of the story; it has been so long since I consumed Shakespeare. Don Quixote is one of my favorite books and I couldn't resist the opportunity to read the whole novel -- one of the first ones ever written -- again.

People have shared Isaac Newton's achievements when Cambridge shut down during the plague. The tale is undoubtedly inspiring but working in a cramped Manhattan apartment doesn't seem to replicate the same setting despite having many more luxuries than 17th century England. Then again, the luxuries probably distract than help.

I also intend to share news and views related to economics and finance because why not? As a researcher it's a time to process how the world is changing. An economist cannot do much in these times obviously. But maybe they can change the way people think about non-normal events.

And who knows? Maybe this will be the new normal. The virus is frustratingly resilient and it brings no comfort knowing it belongs to the family that includes the common cold. If the common cold is any omen, it's going to be hard to find a vaccine for COVID-19. Or maybe we could always have had a vaccine for the cold but that wasn't considered to be a profitable undertaking.

Watch this space for more. 

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